25 January 2011

Packaged HB-LED consumption to rise from $10bn to $46bn in 2020

Global consumption of packaged high-brightness light-emitting diodes (HB-LEDs) was $10.09bn in 2010, according to ElectroniCast Consultants’ ‘HB-LEDs Global Market Review and Forecast (2010-2020)’ for HB-LEDs with a lumens/Watt rating of 30–70lm/W as well as HB-LEDs with a lumens/Watt rating of over 70lm/W. Consumption is forecast to rise to $28.52bn in 2015 then $46.05bn in 2020.

“Decreasing average selling prices (ASPs) are forecast to cause challenging growth patterns in consumption value in some application segments; therefore competitors need to choose the right ‘windows of opportunity’ to climb through,” says Stephen Montgomery, director of LED market research.

Use of HB-LEDs in Mobile/Portable Devices is forecast to remain a strong segment; however, organic LEDs (OLEDs) continue to take market share. The sector is relatively mature versus other sectors and already has a substantial consumption value. However, there are some emerging ‘stars’ in the portable device category, with a very impressive growth pattern forecast for white HB-LEDs (WLEDs).

In terms of consumption value (i.e. quantity x price = value), the use of HB-LEDs in the Vehicle category is forecast to multiply seven-fold (7x), before eventually slipping in value, since declining average prices will offset rising quantity growth in some LED color segments.

The use of HB-LEDs in stationary (non-vehicle) Signals is forecast to increase at an average growth rate of 25.8% (over 2010–2015). Use of HB-LEDs in solid-state lighting (SSL)/General Lighting products is forecast for explosive throughout 2010–2020. Use of HB-LEDs in the Signage/Professional Display application is forecast to rise at an impressive growth pattern, eventually consuming over $6bn in 2020.

The consumption of HB-LEDs in ‘Other’ or miscellaneous applications will become much more segmented with opportunities and accountable, partially attributed to the fact that the tracking of product usage will be (more) evident, aided by automated inventory and purchasing management at the retail and other supply levels.

In the backlighting of consumer-level TV/Desktop Monitor category, the number of packaged white LEDs that are required per back-lighting unit (BLU) will decline, due to increased luminous efficacy and improvements (innovations) in supporting optics (waveguides, components and packaging), forecasts ElectroniCast.

“As we are looking as far as 10 years, many of the future products for the 2020 marketplace are not even at the idea stage yet,” Montgomery notes. “It is also important to note that we, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased-capability/capacity HB-LEDs,” he adds.

Tags: Packaged HB-LED

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