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2 February 2007


Mobile WiMax and WCDMA infrastructure market growth to offset CDMA and GSM declines through 2011

Mobile infrastructure equipment revenues are projected to grow steadily over the next five years, with a slight acceleration in 2008 due to increased mobile WiMax revenues, according to a 5-Year Forecast Report by Dell’Oro Group.

“We expect the mobile WiMax market to grow by a compounded annual growth rate exceeding of 50% through 2011,” says Greg Collins, VP of Mobile Infrastructure research. “Despite this strong growth, we predict WiMax will account for less than 10% of the mobile infrastructure market in 2011 because of the lack of voice services available in the short term,” he adds.

Also, the WCDMA market is expected to perform exceptionally well by 2011, capturing meaningful market share from the rival technologies GSM and CDMA. The CDMA market is projected to shrink as service providers in key growth regions — India, Brazil, and Korea — continue to migrate their subscriber bases to GSM- or WCDMA-based services. GSM service providers are also expected to start migrating to WCDMA.

“While growth in WCDMA remains tepid in the short term, we remain confident in its longer-term growth and potential to slowly displace GSM, because of the large percentage of mobile service providers that have committed to WCDMA technology and the expectation of increased subscriber adoption as handset prices drop in the future,” says Collins.

See related items:

WiMAX growth in China depends on how industry deals with barriers

WiMAX and WLAN: the future for GaAs (part 2)