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9 July 2007


Handset sales to grow 4% through to 2012

Global handset sales will grow 12% in 2007 and 8% in 2008, and exhibit a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% through 2012, according to Strategy Analytics’ report ‘Global Handset Sales Historical & Forecasts, 2002-2012’, which covers sales for 17 protocols in 6 regions and 73 countries worldwide.

UMTS sales will exceed 167 million units in 2007, and will grow at a healthy 35% five-year CAGR through 2012, according to the report. Replacement rates will continue to grow through 2009, peaking at just over 32 months (37%) that year, says Strategy Analytics. Emerging markets will account for 45% of global sales in 2008.

*By the end of 2007, 2.5 billion people will be using cellular services, running 3.2 billion subscriptions collectively, according to the report ‘Worldwide Cellular User Forecasts, 2007-2012’ by Strategy Analytics.

By 2011, half of the world's population will have at least one mobile phone. However, 2007 will be the last year of double-digit service revenue growth, as saturation points in many markets are reached and average revenues continue to slip, says the report.

While 2G and 2.5G GSM systems will dominate and still account for half of the world's cellular users in 2012, WCDMA will emerge as the largest platform for revenue creation by 2011, reckons Strategy Analytics.

See related items:

Handset shipment growth slows to 10% year-on-year

Inventory build-up trims mobile handset shipment growth to 12% in Q1/2007

North America handset shipments should reach 163m in 2007, with Motorola continuing to dominate

Record shipments in Q4 propel mobile phones past 1 billion units in 2006, says IDC