News

26 January 2010

 

HB LED demand to grow 61% in 2010, outstripping supply

By the end of 2009, there were 1413 reactors at 75 manufacturers with a capacity of 188 billion die/year, according to market analyst IMS Research in what it claims is the first market research report characterizing the supply side of white and RGB LED production used for high-brightness (HB) LEDs.

Due to its technical and intellectual-property leadership in white LEDs, Japan’s Nichia has a dominant 42.2% share of the $5.2bn market for in-spec (binned) die, with more than $2bn in revenue, says IMS Research (see Table 1). However, due to its strong focus on the rapidly growing solid-state lighting market, Cree Inc of Durham, NC, USA has surged to 10.6% market share (second biggest), followed by Japan's Showa Denko (7.7%) and Taiwan’s Epistar (6.9%).

Table 1: Top 5 LED makers by in-spec die revenue and share in 2009.

LED supplier	Revenue (US$m)	Share
Nichia	$2,200.0	42.2%
Cree	$550.0	10.6%
Showa Denko	$402.1	7.7%
Epistar	$359.8	6.9%
Epivalley	$119.5	2.3%
Others	$1,576.1	30.3%
Total	$5207.5	100%

By unit volume, of the 33.8 billion in-spec (binned) die produced, Nichia again led, with a 16.5% share (see Table 2), followed by Epistar (12.1%) then Korea's Samsung LED Company (8.8%, vaulting to third biggest due to strong demand from Samsung's TV business), Cree (8.3%) and Show Denko (6%).

Table 2: Top 5 LED makers by in-spec die and market share in 2009.

Supplier	In-spec die (m)	Share
Nichia	5582	16.5%
Epistar	4088	12.1%
Samsung LED	2974	8.8%
Cree	2821	8.3%
Showa Denko	2031	6.0%
Others	16346	48.3%
Total	33843	100%

By region, Taiwan leads with a 37% share of the 33.8 billion in-spec (binned) die produced, followed by Japan (24.2%), then Korea (21.3%), USA (10.8%) and Europe (4.4%) — see Table 3.

Table 3: Regional LED production (in-spec die) and market share in 2009.

Region	In-spec die (m)	Share
Taiwan	12625	37.3%
Japan	8191	24.2%
Korea	7224	21.3%
USA	3660	10.8%
Europe	1493	4.4%
China	650	1.9%
Total	33843	100%

IMS Research says that HB LEDs — including those based on gallium nitride (GaN) and indium gallium nitride (InGaN) — have been experiencing record breaking growth from early 2009 as a result of the rapid shift to LEDs in notebook displays. While this growth continues to accelerate, other markets increasingly migrating to LEDs include signaling, very large outdoor displays, digital billboards, personal lighting, automotive and industrial. In addition, LEDs are enabling solid-state lighting to penetrate the general lighting market. Furthermore, the LCD TV market is now rapidly shifting to LEDs due to their improved performance, superior form factor and lower power. As a result, TVs should become the biggest market for HB LEDs in 2010 creating a supply shortage.

“Demand for HB LEDs is forecast to grow by 61% in 2010, and supply is unlikely to keep up, creating an opportunity for new manufacturers and new tool makers,” says report author Barry Young, IMS Research senior consultant and managing director of the OLED Association.

The report forecasts MOCVD reactor sales of 348 units in 2010. However, an additional 195–240 are needed to meet demand (giving a total potential market of 588 reactors), says IMS. The report hence forecasts a shortage of 12–14 billion in-spec (binned) die in 2010, and that the shortage will continue well into 2013. This potential shortfall in supply is putting pressure on both the tool suppliers and LED makers to improve yields (or reduce the binning specs), increase capacity and speed up tool production, concludes the market research firm.

See related items:

HB-LED consumption to triple to $15bn in 2015

LED market to nearly double to $14.3bn by 2013

HB-LEDs to drive doubling of MOCVD sales to 415 systems in 2011

HB-LED market to grow at 24% to 2013 after 3.7% dip in 2009

Search: HB-LEDs MOCVD

Visit: www.imsresearch.com