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18 December 2007


White LED revenues to fall 15% by 2011, despite shipments doubling

In 2006, white LED shipments rose 42.8% year-on-year (YoY) to 13.2bn units, says Fuji Chimera Research Institute Inc in its survey on the global market for LED products, according to a report in Nikkei Electronics. However, pricing fell by 20-30%, so revenue rose by just 5.2% to ¥184.9bn. For 2007, shipments are predicted to grow by 38% to 18.2bn units and revenue by 8% to ¥200.2bn.

The white LED market is currently being driven by mobile phone applications, says the market research firm. In addition, through higher light-emitting efficiency and lower pricing, more white LEDs are being used in backlighting notebook PCs and medium and large LCD TVs. In contrast, the markets for automobile and lighting system applications are still small, with the full-scale establishment markets expected for 2015 or later.

Challenges that existing white LEDs must overcome include cost and lifecycle, Fuji Chimera reckons. Currently, the lifetime can reach 40,000 hours, but this must be extended to 100,000 hours to increase demand.

The firm forecast that, compared with 2006, white LED shipments will rise by 115.9% to 28.5bn units in 2011. However, revenues will drop by 15.2% to ¥156.8bn.

Overall light-emitting device shipments - visible LEDs (including white LEDs), infrared LEDs, ultraviolet LEDs, organic LEDs (OLEDs) for lighting systems, and vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs, excluding those for communication applications) - grew 2.0% YoY to ¥565.5bn in 2006.

Excluding white LEDs, overall shipments of visible LEDs grew by 27.4% YoY in 2006, with shipments of four-element AlGaInP (aluminum gallium indium phosphide), high-luminance LEDs increased in particular, says Fuji Chimera. Revenue, however, edged up only slightly, due to lower unit prices.

Regarding infrared LEDs, shipments of long-wavelength, short-wavelength and overall products remained flat, grew and slightly rose, respectively. The full-scale market for ultraviolet LEDs was only established in 2006, with products primarily shipped for application in banknote identification equipment.

Fuji Chimera predicts that overall shipments of light-emitting devices will reach ¥595.5bn in 2007, and rise 14.0% on 2006 to ¥644.4bn in 2011.

See related items:

Automotive LED market to double in 10 years

Automotive demand to drive LED market

China’s GaN LED production to overtake Japan in 2010, reckons CSA

LED lighting market to near $1.4bn by 2012

More LED power and efficiency needed to profit from general lighting market

LED market returns to double-digit growth in 2007

Search: White LEDs