13 April 2020
COVID-19 drives recession damaging automotive, consumer electronics and semiconductors globally
The COVID-19-induced 2020 recession will disrupt automotive, consumer electronics, semiconductor and IT infrastructure businesses worldwide before recovery in 2021, reckons Strategy Analytics in a scenario analysis report ‘COVID-19 – Catalysts for Economic Disruption’.
The new scenarios indicate that the damage from the worst economic cycle since the Great Depression will cause both consumer and B2B businesses to suffer, starting with an economic plunge of over 7% in real GDP (33% annualized) in major industrial economies in second-quarter 2020.
“The entire supply chain for digital products in our homes, our cars and associated with our mobile lifestyles will experience significant damage during this downturn that is likely to be felt globally over the next three to four quarters,” says Harvey Cohen, president of Strategy Analytics and lead analyst for these scenarios. “Q3 is also expected to show a decline in real GDP of 3% (12% annualized) with no growth in sight until Q2/2021,” he adds.
“Globally, automotive sales and the consequent demand for automotive electronics are in free fall since March, with a potential decline of up to 25% for 2020 compared with 2019,” notes Ian Riches, VP of Strategy Analytics’ Automotive Practice.
“Global smartphone sales will tumble 23% in 2020 before seeing a modest recovery in 2021,” says David Kerr, senior VP wireless and broadband. “The impact on 5G will be significant, with services delayed in Europe and consumer appetite for expensive new 5G devices being much less healthy in North America and China. China’s supply chain has recovered but consumer willingness to follow through on their plans to migrate to 5G devices and services is uncertain at best,” he adds. “One relative bright spot is network services. Shelter-in-Home orders are increasing the demand for broadband activity, although this will have little impact on operator revenues in the short term.”